Where is local media in the U.S. going to make its money? With the marketplace in flux and print revenues declining, more and more will be digital. That’s the conclusion of a recently released BIA/Kelsey report. “U.S. Local Media Forecast 2015” indicates online/digital will account for more than one-quarter of total local media revenues in 2015.
BIA/Kelsey forecasts total local media revenues to reach $139.3 billion in 2015, up from $137 billion this year, representing a growth rate of 1.6 percent.
“Online/digital will account for more than one-quarter (25.2 percent) of total local media revenues in 2015,” the report summary reads. “Revenues for online/digital are expected to grow from $31 billion in 2014 to $35 billion in 2015, representing a 13.1 percent growth rate.”
BIA/Kelsey forecasts for several online/digital categories include:
- Mobile local ad revenues will grow from $4.3 billion in 2014 to $6.6 billion in 2015
- Local social media revenues will grow from $2.5 billion in 2014 to $3.6 billion in 2015
- Local search revenues will grow from $7.1 billion in 2014 to $7.2 billion in 2015
- Local display revenues will grow from $4.3 billion in 2014 to $4.9 billion in 2015
- Local online video revenues will grow from $2.3 billion in 2014 to $3.0 billion in 2015
Mark Fratrik, chief economist at BIA/Kelsey, expects the pace of growth in the overall local advertising marketplace to moderate over the next five years, resulting in a three percent compound annual growth rate.
“Growth in online/digital advertising revenues will remain strong, with a 12.2 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2019, compared with essentially flat revenues for traditional advertising (-0.5 percent CAGR) during the same period,” Fratrik says.